Well it is time for the last match of the series: the decider. The South Africans bounced back in PE, as only they could. Steyn lifted that little notch from almost-at-his-best to at-his-best, Morkel did his best Johnson impression (WWJD- what should Johnson do) and the Australian batting showed just how brittle it was- 10 wickets for under 100 (if you ignore the runs from the opening partnership). It proved again why first innings runs are so important. Warner did his best, before throwing it away, but few others really contributed in the first innings, which left Australia vulnerable. Rogers scored his third second innings century, but it was not enough.
So to Cape Town. With the Saffers having found a way to neutralise Mitch, I expect that the pitch will be uncharacteristically slow and low. They will be relying on Steyn to produce some more classic reverse, and Morkel to continue to use his height to get the venom that Mitch lacked. The Aussies will be hoping that someone steps up and scores runs in the first innings. Smith and Haddin still look the most likely, though Warner once again teased with potential. We need someone else to show that can do it too. The Aussies will also be hoping that Clarke comes back from being MIA at the batting crease. His run since Adelaide has been downright awful. Harris has had a (for him) poor performance this series, and will be looking to lift, and Johnson will want to bounce back after PE.
However I think the biggest key to this match will be the toss. Clarke will be hoping it is his turn to call right given Smith's two successes so far. The Aussies perform far better batting first, and winning the toss gives them the best opportunity to make a real contest of this match. Their batsmen seem to struggle under the weight of chasing, and score more freely when they are ahead. Their bowlers seem to lift with a target to bowl at.
I guess the other question is whether the win at Centurian was a combination of the afterglow of the Asjes combined with South Africa's habit of starting slowly, or if PE was just a slip in concentration after a long summer, So to my prediction: I have no idea- there are too many variables at the moment, but I will tip which ever side bats first to win the match. Clarke, try to call correctly.
Other points of interest:
David Warner. Is it just me or is David Warner trying for the Stupidest comment by a Cricketer in 2014 award. De Villiers is a highly respected international player. Even if you think he is doing the wrong thing, bring it up with the match referee or the umpires, don't air it in public. You end up looking petty and a bad loser. And this is just the latest attempt to win the prise. Look back at the press conferences and comments he has made this year or for that matter late last year. He certainly adds colour to the usually bland commentary in the press. However doing this to the best test nation on earth, and on that is as proud and determined as the South Africans may be counter productive.
Vernon Philander. One of Warner's targets has been Philander- saying he only bowls well In a limited range of conditions. This prompted someone on twitter asking why the Aussies don't rate Philander. The answer is simple. It is the same reason we never rated Cullinan, didn't rate Bell until the middle of last year, and the English were hoping to face Johnson in the Ashes last summer. We haven't seen him at his best consistently. Cullinan was a very good batsman who just happened to run into a bowler with a flipper he couldn't pick. Philander is a player with a record that any Aussie would love to have. He just hasn't shown it to the Aussies yet - at least not in Australia (when most of us are watching). His record against the Aussies in South Africa is similar to his overall (averaging 19.95 as opposed to 18.87 overall). However in Australia he averages almost 50 (4 wickets @49.75 at a strike rate of over 100). This in spite of the fact that he bowled on the two best pitches for his style of bowling, and missed the match in Adelaide, where the pitch would not suit him at all (hence Warner's jibe). This gives him an overall average against the Aussies of 24.91- still very good, if a third higher than his overall average. He is one of the top bowlers in the world for a very good reason. The Aussies will be hoping he doesn't regain top form in the last match of this series (in which he is averaging 34).
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