SAvAUS 2014: Centurion Wrap

In my series preview, I noted that it was hard to tell where the Australians were in the world pecking order.  After all, they had only played the English since their resurgence: an English team that has lost Trott, Swann, Prior, KP and their coach in the last few months.  While this was seen as a consequence of Australia's dominance, the loss of both players and matches could have been due to disharmony in the dressing room, or the English management style- both have been blamed- rather than the rise of Australia.  However, I think we now have an answer.  

The Australians have systematically dismantled an even more highly fancied South African team.  While the Aussie batting still looks brittle, it finds ways of making runs- even better, now it is not Haddin doing all the rescuing.  The Johnson-led bowling dominated everyone, apart from De Villiers- who is rightly rated as the best batsman in the world.  The fielding was where the difference was seen most - even more than the bowling.  Compare the three dropped catches when Warner was batting to the two screamers by Doolan, not to mention the sharp catch by Smith in the second innings.  The first three should have been caught (though G. Smith's effort was a very difficult one).  The last three were such that had they been dropped, few would have blamed the fielder.  (As an aside: the Tasmanian fielding coach must be good- I thought we would miss Bailey's close catching, but Doolan has more than matched him.)  That having been said, the Saffers are also in transition- they recently changed their coach and lost Kallis.  Still, they are a team that has a habit of not losing, and are still full of champions.  All of this points to Australia's acendancy being real, not a figment of English disintegration.  

So what does this mean for the rest of the series?  I had predicted a narrow win to the South Africans. If any team could still pull it off the South Africans can.  But it looks unlikely.  The manner of the defeat was reminiscent of the recent Ashes.  If Johnson continues to hold fitness and form, I cannot see South Africa turning the series around.  I expect Steyn to lift a bit, no longer hampered by his food poisoning. Also it would be unlikely that Johnson can keep knocking Smith over on his second ball to him.  So some improvement can be expected.  However, Petersen's dismissals did not look very good for an international opener.  MacLaren did not look even close to a replacement for Kallis, and probably needs to be replaced with a batsman.  And Peterson is not a test class spinner, and I am not sure that South Africa has one.  Overall, the Aussies are likely to run away with the series given the way South Africa folded twice this test.