Normally an mild optimist, cricket seems to bring out the pessimist in me. Take this test for example: There seems to be an assumption in some sections of the media that now the Aussies posted 570, England will roll over and collapse. It may happen, after all, Mitch got Cook early with a beauty. And the English may still have a scar or two from the 'Gabba test. On the other hand, the way Carberry and Root batted out the rest of the day indicates to me that the draw is at least as likely. It is only 12 months ago a South African on debut batted for an unbelievably long time to save a match on this ground (over 11 hours across the two innings). It would not be an entire shock to see that sort of thing happen again if these two keep batting for a while. Add the fact that KP's one big score a series is more often in the second test than any other, and the fact that Bell has been their best batsman for the last six months, and it looks ever likelier. Then, of course they have their own debutant in Kiwi (Stokes). In fact, unless the Aussies get at least 7 or 8 wickets today, I'm tipping a draw (still a possibility even if they do). Then the Aussies would have to lift in Perth and win for this draw to look like anything other than a moral victory for England.
Of course, the only thing worse than a moral victory, would be an actual win for England. If you think I am being overly pessimistic, just look up the 2003 and 2006 Adelaide matches where the team batting first scored over 550, only to be beaten. This is the one ground where a big lead and an early wicket is still a long way from a secure win. It doesn't even mean we can't lose.
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