The Aussies are trying for a clean sweep- the second in three home Ashes and only third 5-0 scoreline in Ashes history-, and to jump to number three in the world. The English are playing for pride and to keep the third place on the test rankings (for which they need a win here). So a quick look at the teams:
Australia
Only a couple of injury worries would see the team change. Harris's knee could see Coulter-Nile make a debut, and Watson's injury could see Doolan take his place at three, and Faulkner take his place (and Bailey's) as an all-rounder. However they both seemed to be on track to keep the same team together for the fifth straight match.
England
It seems likely that Ballance will get a run in the team given the repeated failures of the top six. The question is who he replaces. Carberry seems to be the favourite, though Root has been just as bad. England really cannot afford to have two slow scorers in the top three. Some people are still singling out KP, but he was by far the best in Melbourne. I suspect Root will open with Cook, and Ballance will either slot in at three, or swap with Bell.
Bairstow proved me wrong when I said that he couldn't do worse than Prior. The shame is that England have several good keepers going around, but picked part-timer Bairstow as the back up as they thought he could be a back up batsman as well. I guess they could not believe that Prior would be in such bad form for so long. However, I think they will give Bairstow a second chance.
The bowlers are an interesting problem. Borthwick is likely to get a run. Firstly, Panesar injured himself, so may not be available. Even if he is, Cook showed no faith in him in Melbourne bowling Root in two spells before finally bringing Panesar on with only 30-odd left to defend. If they are going to have a specialist spinner they don't trust, it might as well be one that bats and fields better the Monty, and is a chance to develop for the future. As for the quicks, having brought Finn and Rankin, at least one of them really needs to play. They would need to replace Anderson or Bresnan. Anderson needs the rest and Bresnan was particularly unimpressive. I doubt that both will be replaced, and realistically if the other changes are made, the English are unlikely to make a change here.
Prediction
Having put up a good fight for the first two and a half days in Melbourne, getting themselves into a position to control the match, England fell apart spectacularly to lose inside four days. Given that, it is hard to see any result other than another Aussie win, though if they can find the early fight from Melbourne it would be a better match. I am not usually this optomistic but I am looking at a clean sweep (which probably means England will find a way to win, but I still think that is unlikely).
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