Starting with the openers. Warner is a clear selection, even after a relatively lean series in the Windies. Incumbent S. Marsh has not done enough to keep Rogers out assuming he is available. Rogers' experience in England and his proven partnership with Warner should mean he forces Marsh to fight for a lower position in the batting. Come August, however, the Aussies will need to work out who partners Warner on Rogers retirement (I'm not convinced it is Marsh).
Finally the Aussies have a clear selection for number 3. The new world number one, Steven "what an incredible 18 months- can we make it two years" Smith has a lock on the job for the foreseeable future. He is the first since the decline of Ponting set in. His continued success is important to the fate of the team in this series.
Clarke at four is another easy selection- assuming Clarke can stay fit. If not, it makes the next selection easier.
Five is currently Adam Voges domain. After only two tests, Voges is already one of the Aussie old brigade, being an old debutant. A reasonable start to the series in England should see him keep his position throughout. His main challenger is S. Marsh. Marsh seems to do well in his first test back after a break, but so far seems less able to sustain the performances- injury, poor form, and successful rivals have conspired to cut off each of his short runs in the team.
The all-rounder spot is a contentious one. Watson is the incumbent, but as regular readers will know, he is not a favourite of this blogger. He is a useful, but rarely penetrating bowler, and an average batsman at best. Given the level of his bowling, a batting average in the low thirties, with so few hundreds from so many attempts, is not really good enough. A decade Watson's junior, the other Marsh brother, the third of the Mitchell's, is a better long term prospect. He bowls with more zip, and loses nothing in the batting. While he may not be as good at drying up the runs as Watson (who manages to do so with bat as well as ball!), Mitchell Marsh looks more likely to take several wickets. His batting exploits thus far have at least been on a par with Watson. Of course the best Aussie all-rounder is not even in the squad. Faulkner is by far the best bowler of the three, and would lose little if any to Watson in the batting. However, barring injury or a change in selection policy, he is not available, so it is M.Marsh that should get the nod. Sadly, it will probably be Watson, again.
Haddin remains as the keeper, even though his batting has declined since the last Ashes. He is, however, keeping better than at any point in his international career. Neville and the others in the queue will need to wait for Haddin to retire before moving up. Of course, at Haddin's age, that could be sooner rather than later, but not before the Ashes are over.
Lyon should remain the spinner of choice. He has just become the most successful finger spinner of Australian history, all before he hits the time in his career that most spinners are at their best. Let's hope that the tour selectors don't have brain fades like in India a couple of years ago, or in England last time where lesser spinners were brought in "on spec" at Lyon's expense. If there is a pitch needing two spinners, Ahmed should come in as the second spinner, but Lyon should be first pick.
That leaves three places for quicks. With Harris' return, there are five quicks in the running. Unfortunately for Siddle, who has been a hard worker and mainstay of the attack, he is clearly in last place at the moment, and will probably not feature too much in the Ashes unless there is injury to the other quicks. Harris has been consistently the best bowler for Australia in the last few years, when available, even given the heroics of Johnson the summer before last. Like Bruce Reid of an earlier generation, when available Harris is virtually a first pick. That leaves Johnson, Starc and Hazelwood to fight for two places. It is hard to pick which one should miss out. Starc, the most likely, is finally showing his awesome white ball can be reproduced in red ball cricket, and he needs to be given a prolonged chance. What he has done in white ball cricket, especially the recent World Cup, suggests that he could be the best bowler in the world if he gets his red ball game up to speed. Hazelwood has been the best bowler in the last few matches, especially in the absence of Harris, and thoroughly deserves to keep his spot. Johnson is also hard to leave out. It was his rise in fortune that changed Australia's form line so dramatically between the last two sets of Ashes. Given what he did to the English batsmen, it would be a psychological boost to England if he was dropped (not to mention he is a fairly decent bowler!). While outshone by the other two in the Caribbean, he was still bowling well. Whichever of these four misses out is going to be desperately unlucky. My guess is that it will be Starc. I wonder if the selectors should take a risk and leave out Johnson. If Starc knocks over Cook and Balance in the first couple of overs- like he knocked over early Windies wickets- any English psychological advantage will have evaporated.
